Multidecadal variability of air temperature...

Multidecadal variability of air temperature over East-Central Europe in the last millennium


A large number of scientific studies are currently under development on both the observed climate change as well as forecasts for a further increase in air temperature. For this purpose, it is necessary to know the response of the climate system to a number of different internal and external factors, such as changes in the intensity of solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, or variability of forms of atmospheric circulation. Therefore, research on climate variability before 1850, i.e. before the beginning of the so-called "the industrial revolution". However, there are still an insufficient number of publications on this subject, most of which relate to historical sources (yearbooks, chronicles, correspondence).

This project aimed to increase information on the thermal conditions of East-Central Europe in the years 850-1850. For this purpose, meteorological data from the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble model was processed to determine the relationship between air temperature and changes in solar radiation and the amount of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere. In addition, the directions of airflow over Europe in the period of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age has been determined. It has been shown that short-term decrease in air temperature have been caused by large emissions of sulfur compounds to the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions located in the western Pacific. An example would be the eruption of the Samalas volcano (1257), which also coincided with low values ​​of the solar constant. It was found that in winter during the Little Ice Age, in the eastern part of Europe, more often than average high pressure systems occurred. This caused an airflow of cold air masses from the east.